生态环境承载力评价研究——以河南省为例

A solution to the problem of ecological environmental carrying capacity evaluation: a case study of Henan Province

测度人类活动是否处于生态环境的承载力范围之内是生态环境承载力评价的核心内容,是区域国土开发科学决策规划的需要,但是生态环境可承载能力的阈值和人类活动对生态环境施加压力的大小均是难以定量计算的,为了解决生态环境承载力评价面临的这一难题,本文研究提出了一种生态环境承载力评价的新方法,即"生态环境质量指数动态评价法"。该方法依据生态平衡理论和生态稳定性原理,将承载力评价转化为运行状态评价,以"生态环境系统是否处于良性运行状态"作为生态环境是否处于可承载状态的评价标准;首先应用生态环境质量指数(EI)模型计算出评价区多年的EI值,然后再依据EI的动态变化趋势对"生态环境系统的运行状态"进行评定,以达到对区域生态环境承载力进行评价之目的,以河南省为例,介绍了评价的方法与过程。结果表明:(1)生态环境质量现状评价不是承载力评价,但是可通过对生态环境质量的动态变化趋势进行回归分析以达到承载力评价之目的;(2)该方法紧扣生态环境承载力的内涵,避开了生态环境系统承载力阈值测算的难点,方法简明易行,结果意义明确、实用性强,为承载力评价提供了一种新思路和新方法;(3)生态环境系统质量现状不能反映其承载状态,信阳市的生态环境质量在河南是最好的,目前却处于超载、退化状态,而濮阳和安阳市的情况则与信阳市正好相反,应引起政府决策部门的重视。

To evaluate eco-environmental carrying capacity, the core task is to estimate whether the intensity of human activity is within the threshold value of the eco-environmental carrying capacity. However, both the intensity of activity and the threshold value are difficult to measure correctly. In an attempt to solve the problem of evaluating eco-environmental carrying capacity, from the viewpoint of eco-environment system operating status, we present a new method of eco-environmental carrying capacity evaluation, called the ＂Eco-environment Index dynamic evaluation method,＂ which is based on the ecological balance theory and the ecological stability principle. The processes adopted using this method are as follows. The first is providing an evaluation criterion of eco-environmental carrying status, that is, whether the eco-environment system is operating well. The second is calculating values of the eco-environment index （EI） in different years using an existing EI model. The third is judging the eco-environment system operating status based on the change trend of EI by regression analysis. Using these steps, eco-environmental carrying capacity can be evaluated. The evaluating process is demonstrated by using the case study of Henan Province, which yielded the following results. （1） Although eco-environmental carrying capacity evaluation is different from the EI, it can be performed by regression analysis of the EI. （2） This method, by following the strict definition of carrying capacity and avoiding the difficulty of estimating the intensity of activity and threshold value, provides a new way of thinking and a new approach to eco-environmental carrying capacity evaluation. Moreover, it is concise, easy to perform, and of clear significance. （3） Attention should be paid that the eco-environment quality cannot reflect the carrying status, for the region with a high eco-environment quality can be overloaded such as Xinyang, and the opposite case can be also exist such as Puyang and Anyang in Henan.