关中-天水经济区生态足迹变化驱动因素

Driving factors of the ecological footprint of the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone

揭示影响关中-天水经济区生态足迹变化的驱动因素,对建立节能型产业结构,寻求经济与环境、生态与社会的协调发展具有重要意义。应用生态足迹和偏最小二乘法,在计算2005至2014年关中-天水经济区生态足迹的基础上,确定偏最小二乘法变量投影重要性和标准偏最小二乘法系数,比较了驱动因素的重要程度。结果显示,影响生态足迹变化较为重要的驱动因素有第三产业增加值、国内生产总值和社会消费品零售总额。相比之下,常用耕地面积与全区人口数对关中-天水经济区生态足迹驱动作用不显著。为此提出将优化产业结构与优化能源结构有机结合起来、转变能源利用方式、提升能源利用率、提高土地利用率、加强土地保护、提高土地生态承载力、引导低碳消费行为、推行低碳生活方式等对策建议。

Identifying the factors that drive changes in the ecological footprint of the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone is crucial for developing energy efficient industrial structures and for developing strategies to simultaneously improve the economy and environment, as well as ecology and society. Based on the zone＇s ecological footprint from 2005 to 2014, the importance of the PLS model and the standard PLS model coefficients were determined by using the ecological footprint and the PLS model, and the importance of various driving factors was compared. Significant factors included tertiary industry added value, gross domestic product, and total retail sales of consumer goods, but not local population or cultivated land area. Based on these results, specific countermeasures are proposed for the sustainable development of the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone, such as the combined optimization of industrial and energy structures, in order to improve energy utilization and efficiency. In addition, it is also necessary to improve use efficiency, protection, and the ecological carrying capacity of the land and to encourage low-carbon consumption and low-carbon lifestyles.