城镇化对贫困率的非线性影响

Nonlinear influencing of urbanization on poverty rate

基于中国30个省(市、区)的面板数据,运用门限回归模型就城镇化对贫困率的非线性影响进行了考察。结果显示:城镇化水平的提升有助于居民贫困率的降低,但是这一减贫效应具有明显的双门限特征;当城镇化率小于55.7%时,其减贫作用十分显著;当城镇化率在55.7%-68%时,其减贫作用开始放缓;当城镇化率超过68%时,其减贫作用不再显著。这一结果说明,当前城镇化进程同居民减贫之间存在着一定程度的非良性互动。此外,在城镇化进程中,金融发展和固定资产投资都在一定程度上有利于减贫,且金融发展程度的减贫作用要大于固定资产投资的减贫作用。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China, the threshold regression model is used to investigate the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and poverty. The re- suits show that the improvement of the urbanization level contrib- utes to the reduction of the poverty rate of the residents, and the poverty reduction effect has obvious double threshold characteris- tics. When the urbanization rate is less than 55.7% , its effect on poverty alleviation is very significant. When the urbanization rate reaches between 55. 7% and 68% , its poverty reduction effect is slowed down. When the urbanization rate exceeds 68% , the effeet on poverty is no longer significant. This results mean that there is a certain degree of non - benign interaction between the current urbanization process and the reduction of poverty. In addition, to some extent, the degree of financial de- velopment and the investment in fixed assets are conducive to the alleviation of poverty in the process of urbanization. And the de- gree of financial development has more effect than the fixed asset investment on the poverty reduction