基于前景理论的企业安全投入决策研究

A Research on the Enterprise's Decision-making of Safety Input Based on the Prospect Theory

企业安全投入决策是有限理性人在不确定情形下的决策行为,运用前景理论,构建企业安全投入决策的价值函数和决策权重函数,计算不同方案的前景值,运用Matlab软件进行数值分析,研究参照点、风险偏好(规避)、风险态度等参数对企业安全投入决策的影响。结果发现,企业之所以会选择安全违规方案,与其在安全投入决策时选取的参照点、安全监管力度以及自身的风险偏好(规避)、风险态度等有密切关系。研究给出了促使企业采取安全达标方案、拒绝安全违规方案的对策建议。

Enterprise＇s safety input decision-making is the uncertainty decision making by limited rational people. First, based on prospect theory, the value function and decision weights function are built, and the prospect values of different decisions are calculated. Then, combining with the numerical simulation results of Matlab software, the influence of reference point, risk preference （avoidance）, risk attitude to enterprise＇s safety input decision-making are analyzed. The results show that the reasons why enterprises choose safety violation programs is closely related to their reference point, security supervision and their own risk appetite （circumvention）, risk attitude and so on when they are selected in safety input decision. Finally, the countermeasures are provided to promote enterprises to take safety compliance program rather than safety violation program.