论政治生态的变迁对拉美一体化进程的影响——以美洲玻利瓦尔联盟和太平洋联盟为例

Influence of Changes of Political Ecology on Latin American Integration Process:Taking Bolivarian Alliance and Pacific Alliance as Examples

近期拉美政治钟摆运动再次发生,多国左翼政府被右翼轮替,新一轮的周期促使次区域组织发生演进,推动了一体化进程的发展分化。这种发展分化在不同意识形态的一体化组织之间尤为明显,目前,多个组织的发展现状已呈现差异。美洲玻利瓦尔联盟和太平洋联盟是拉美地区两个典型的次区域组织,前者已陷入困境,后者仍维持发展势头。区域内部生态环境的发展变化、世界经济形势的走向以及特朗普政府的对拉政策,是影响拉美一体化未来走向的重要因素。

Recently, the political movement in Latin American happened again, the leftwing paties of many countries have been replaced by the right -wing parties.. The new political cycle led to the evolution of subregional organization, which contributed to the development and differentiation of regional integration process. The development difference is particularly significant among organizations of different ideologies. At present, the development of several organizations have showed differences. The Bolivarian Alliance and the Pacific Alliance are the two typical subrigional organizations in Latin America, and the former has been in trouble and the latter remains growing. The three fundamental elements that affect the future of regional integration are the development of regional political ecology, the trend of world economy and the foreign policy of the U.S. Government.