秘鲁水资源规划中农业灌溉发展目标确定方法

Determination of Irrigation Development Objectives in the Water Resources Planning of Peru

基于历史农业灌溉统计数据和趋势分析,提出了一个确定水资源综合规划中农业灌溉发展目标的分析方法。该方法将产量的增加划分为灌溉面积增加、雨养面积增加和科技提高3个部分,以秘鲁为例,计算了这3个方面对产量增加贡献值。在此基础上提出农业灌溉的发展目标,即为了满足人口增长和社会经济发展的需求,从现状水平年(2012年)到规划水平年(2035年),秘鲁全国范围内需要新增灌溉面积约150万hm^2。

Based on the historical agriculture and irrigation statistic data, a method determining the irrigation development objectives in water resources planning was proposed. Causes of the increment of crop yield were divided into three parts： the increase of irrigation area, the increase of rain-feed area, and the development of agricultural technology. Their contributions were quantitatively estimated by taking Peru as a case study, resulted in the irrigation development objectives. That is, from the basis evaluation year （2015） to predictive planning year （2030）, new development of 1.5 million hectares irrigation area is required to meet the demand of population increase and economic development.