花生价格对农户生产决策与收益的影响分析——基于规模分化的视角

The impacts of peanut price changes on farmers' planting decisions and benefits:From the scale differentiation perspective

基于规模分化的视角,以花生为例,利用2011-2014年农户微观调研的面板数据,采用面板回归模型和综合指数分析模型,分析价格与生产决策及收益的关系,探讨花生价格对农户生产决策调整以及农户种植收益的影响。结果表明,花生价格与农户经营规模并不存在明显关系,说明花生价格是由市场决定的,并非由农户内生决定。花生价格对农户生产决策的影响与农户经营规模有关,并表现为倒"U"型关系,价格变化对小、中、大规模农户种植面积的影响程度分别为0.257、0.348和0.121。花生价格波动的价格效应对农户种植收益变动的贡献率也与农户经营规模有关,价格波动对中等规模农户种植收益变动的贡献率为64.63%,低于小规模和大规模农户的73.12%和78.27%。因此,要积极稳妥地推进适度规模经营,并充分考虑不同经营规模的差异,同时还要加强支持政策,发展农业保险。

Based on the micro survey data of 668 farmers from 2011 to 2014 and applying the panel regression model and the comprehensive index analysis model, this paper analyzed the relationship between peanut price and production decision and economic returns, and examined the impacts of peanut price changes on farmers’ production decisions and economic returns from different operation scale perspective. Results show that： 1） there is no obvious relationship between peanut prices and operation scales, meaning that peanut prices are determined by the market, not by the endogenous farmers; 2） the impacts of price changes on farmers’ production decisions are related to operation scales with an inverted “U” shape relationship. While the impact indexes of price changes on small, medium and large-scale farms are 0.257, 0.348 and 0.121, respectively; and 3） peanut price changes imposed different impacts on farmers’ economic returns for different production scales, with impact indexes of 73.12%, 64.63% and 78.27% for small, medium, and large farms, respectively. Therefore, this paper suggests to actively and steadily promote the appropriate scale of operation, to give full consideration to the differences in the size of different operations, to strengthen government support policies, and to reform agricultural insurance.