摩天大楼与城市天际线：以中国为例

Skyscrapers and Skylines: The Case of China

1978年,中国迎来了改革开放。伴随着全面的经济改革和城市化进程,中国各大城市也开始投入到摩天大楼的兴建中。虽然中国的摩天大楼已经得到了广泛关注,却很少有人探索是什么力量在不断推动中国摩天大楼的高度和建设速度。这篇文章旨在探索中国摩天大楼的兴建动力,究竟是城市发展对高层建筑的合理需求,还是其他社会或政治原因。研究发现表明,基本经济要素,例如人口和城市生产总值仍是影响摩天大楼兴建的主要因素。此外,这篇文章没有发现系统性的证据支持摩天大楼市场中存在城市之间的竞争,但发现小城市比预期建设了更高的摩天大楼。

Since 1978, when China instituted economic reforms, cities have embraced skyscraper construction. Despite the importance of these structures, little is understood about what has been driving their heights and frequencies. This work explores to what degree skyscraper construction patterns represent rational responses to the demand for tall buildings versus political or sociological factors, such as to call attention to respective cities or raise revenue for municipal governments. The findings suggest that economic fundamentals（population and gross city products） are key drivers of skyscrapers. Evidence for political factors is mixed. Municipal fiscal situations do not seem to matter, but there is a negative correlation between the ages of municipal leaders and skyscraper construction, suggesting that younger leaders promote skyscrapers as a way to advance their careers. No evidence is found to support that cities engage in inter-city competition in the skyscraper market, but smaller cities build taller than predicted.