摘要
本文使用中美两国非金融企业去趋势后的债务率或负债率数据来检验其与国内生产总值(GDP)实际增长率之间的相关性。在所考察的时期内,美国数据未能通过统计显著性检验,中国2000~2014年数据则表明两者之间具有负相关性。中国非金融企业作为一个整体其负债率所显现的"逆周期性"与若干使用上市企业个体数据的研究结果有明显差别。这种差别不必是相互矛盾,而更可能反映了中国经济内部结构的一些问题。
The authors of this paper use the de-trending debt ratio data of non-financial enterprises in China and USA to test the correlation between debt ratio and real growth rate of gross domestic product （GDP）. During the sample period, the USA＇s data fail to pass the statistical significance test, nonetheless, China＇s 2000-2014 data show that there is a negative correlation. The counter-cyclical feature of the debt ratio of China＇ s non-financial enterprises as a whole is obviously different from the studying results based on the data of some listed companies. This difference does not show any contradiction, but more likely reflects some problems in the internal structure of China＇s economy.
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第11期3-11,共9页
Finance Forum
关键词
非金融企业
债务率
周期性
去杠杆
non-financial enterprise
debt ratio
cyclicality
de-leveraging
