P2P网贷债权市场中违约舆情的传染机制

The Contagion Mechanism of Default Public Opinion in P2P Network Lending Creditor's Rights Market

本文基于传染病模型,分析P2P债权转让模式和违约舆情传染机制,并进行模拟仿真。结果发现,当转让债权人传染再生数超过阀值时,P2P恐慌情绪传染将始终存在,并导致P2P平台陷入危机。当债权市场转让标受网络舆情影响急剧上升时,情绪传染时间将会缩短,债权市场中的转让标存量将会倍增,导致债权市场功能丧失,并陷入危机。

Based on the infectious disease model, the contagion mechanism of default public opinion, the authors of this paper analyze the pattern of credit assignment and and present a simulation. The results of the paper show that the P2P panic contagion will always exist and P2P platform will be in crisis if the contagion regeneration number of the assignor of creditor＇s rights is more than the threshold. The emotional contagion time will be shortened when the assignment of the creditor＇s rights market rises markedly due to the influence of the network public opinion, and the assignment stock of the market will be doubled, which results in the loss of creditor market function and the crisis.