居民幸福感与居民通货膨胀预期——基于中国家庭金融调查中心(CHFS)的数据

Residents' Happiness and Their Inflation Expectation——A Study Based on the Data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)

基于2013年中国家庭金融调查项目的数据研究发现,主观幸福感可以显著影响居民的通货膨胀预期且对通货膨胀预期的影响呈倒U形,只有在高幸福感群体中通货膨胀预期才会随着幸福感增强而降低;幸福感通过社会互动和政府信任两种途径分别对居民通货膨胀预期产生提升效应和抑制效应:一方面,幸福感通过增强居民社会互动获取更多经济信息对通货膨胀预期产生提升效应;另一方面,幸福感增强了居民对政府的信任水平进而对通货膨胀预期产生了抑制效应。

Based on the data of the China Household Finance Survey （CHFS） in 2013, the study shows that the subjective happiness can significantly affect residents＇ inflation expectation, and the influence on inflation expectations is an inverted-U shape; the inflation expectation decreases with the increase in happiness only in high-happiness group; the happiness has a boost effect and a suppression effect on residents＇ inflation expectation in two ways of social interaction and government trust： on the one hand, the happiness enhances social interaction so the residents can obtain more economic information which has a boost effect on inflation expectations; on the other hand, the happiness enhances resi- dents＇ trust in the government which has a suppression effect on inflation expectation.