1991年来台商对大陆装备制造业直接投资时空格局演变

The Evolution of Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Taiwan Residents Direct Investment of their equipment manufacturing industry in China's Mainland since 1991

采用台湾"经济部"投资审议委员会1991—2012年统计月报中关于台商对大陆装备制造业投资(下文简称为装备制造业TDI)的相关数据,借助Geo DA等软件分析装备制造业TDI的时空演变特征,并探讨其驱动机制。结论表明:(1)装备制造业TDI在时空格局上存在阶段性变化:时间上可划分为调整过渡时期(1991—1999年)和稳态发展时期(2000—2012年),空间上经历了"集聚—分散—再集聚—再分散"的过程;(2)全局Moran's I值波动中有收敛,说明现阶段装备制造业TDI投资基本空间相关性格局已形成,虽呈现向北、向西扩散的趋势,但东部沿海将继续作为台商投资的重要区域;(3)运用空间滞后回归模型,分析时空格局演化机制。

Using the relevant statistical data of 1991-2012 years from the Deliberative Committee of Taiwan ＂Ministry of Economy＂ about the Taiwan Residents investment of their equipment manufacturing industry （TDI） in the mainland, this paper makes a careful analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution feature with the help of GeoDA software, and at the same time, discusses its driving mechanism. Empirical results show that there exist the phasic changes in the temporal and spatial pattern： time can be divided into the transition period （1991-1999） and the steady development period （2000-2012） while the space has undergone the process of ＂agglomeration- dispersion- re-agglomeration-re-dispersion＂. On the other hand, there is a weakening fluctuation in the value of Moran＇s I, which demonstrates that the basic spatial correlation pattern in the current equipment manufacturing industry TDI has been formed. Besides, the eastern coast will continue to be an important area for Taiwan Residents investment although it presents the trend of spreading to the north and the westward. According to the spatial lag regression model and the analysis of the evolution mechanism of the temporal pattern, the paper has come to conclusion that the driving mechanism of the location choice in the equipment manufacturing industry TDI lies in the reduction of the cost and the improvement of the production efficiency, the expansion of the market and the situation in the Taiwan Strait as well as the encouragement by the mainland policies.