城市防洪规划中并联水库群联合调度分析方法

Joint Operational Analysis Method of Multi-parallel Reservoir Systems for the Planning of Urban Flood Control

水库联合调度作为城市防洪的非工程措施发挥着越来越重要的作用,但是随着水库数目的增多,由于数学模型概化及优化技术的局限性(如动态规划中的"维数灾"问题),水库优化调度及其规则的制定变得越来越困难。为此,针对城市防洪规划中水库群的防洪调度规则制定,以城市防洪控制断面的过流能力为约束条件,提出了正逆两向的水库联合调度分析方法,以都匀市已有和规划水库群的联合调度为例,验证了提出方法的合理性与可操作性。结果表明:逆向分析方法相比正向分析方法相比更能减小水库调度方案制定的不确定性,结果也可为类似的城市防洪规划提供参考和借鉴。

Joint operation of reservoirs as non-engineering measures plays an important role in current urban flood control. However, with the increase in the number of reservoirs and the limitations of the mathematical model and optimization techniques, forward and inverse analysis methods are proposed based on the flood discharge capacity within the control reach of a city river. A case study is conducted in the flood control of Duyun City for the joint operation of reservoirs in the planning process. The rationality and operability of the proposed methods have been verified in the case study. Results indicate that the reverse analysis method can reduce the uncertainty of the reservoir operation plan better than the forward analysis method. In addition, the results can also be used as a reference for similar urban flood control plans.