基于流溪河模型的梅江流域洪水预报研究

Flood Forecast of Small and Medium-sized Watershed Based on Liuxihe Model in Meijiang River Basin

为了探讨流溪河模型在中小河流实时洪水预报中的适用性,构建了1、2、3级河道的梅江流域洪水预报流溪河模型,采用PSO算法优选模型参数,并对不同河道分级的模型进行了验证。结果表明,1级河道建立的模型不能较好地模拟出实测洪水过程,尤其是洪峰流量值的模拟,不能满足模型在中小河流洪水预报中的计算要求。3级河道构建的模型可以很好地模拟实测洪水过程,采用流溪河模型进行中小河流洪水预报时,可以选择3级河道构建模型;流溪河模型采用1场实测洪水就可以对模型参数进行有效优选,在实测资料系列不长的我国中小河流洪水预报中应用具有明显优势;采用3级河道构建梅江流域洪水预报流溪河模型和优选的模型参数时,模拟效果良好,可用于梅江流域实时洪水预报。

In order to study the applicability of the Liuxihe Model in the real-time flood forecast for the small and medium-sized watershed, the flood forecasting system based on the Liuxihe Model in Meijiang River Basin of Jiangxi Province is established, and the parameters are optimized by adopting the PSO algorithm. The model with different channel orders is validated in the end. It indicates that the model established by the first-order river channel cannot simulate the observe flood process, especially the simulation of the peak flow value, and cannot meet the calculation requirements of flood forecast for small and medium-sized watershed. When the revised Liuxihe model for the small and medium-sized watershed flood forecast is adopted, delineated channel systems with three orders for Liuxihe model is proposed, which would have a better performance in small and medium sized watershed flood simulated. The Liuxihe Model can effectively optimize the model＇s parameters with only one measured flood, thus it takes great advantages in the application of real-time flood forecasting of small and medium-sized watersheds in China. Besides, based on the three-order river channel, the flood forecasting system is established based on Liuxihe Model in Meijiang River Basin and optimizing parameters of model, which would simulate satisfying results and these methods can be used in the real-time flood forecasting of the Meijiang River Basin.