长三角城市群综合发展水平测度及耦合协调评价——来自26城市2002—2015年的面板数据

Evaluation on Comprehensive Development Level and Coupling Coordination in Yangtze River Delta City Group——Panel Data of 26 Cities from 2002 to 2015

为准确评价长三角城市群协同发展状态,通过建立长三角城市群发展水平测度指标体系,选取26个城市2002—2015年的面板数据,运用熵值法和耦合协调模型测算长三角城市群综合发展指数和耦合协调度。结果显示:长三角城市群综合发展水平整体呈现逐年上升的时序特征,群内各城市之间的发展水平截面差异明显;资源子系统综合指数增长幅度最大,环境子系统次之,再次是产业子系统,人口子系统综合指数增长幅度最小,各子系统指数变化轨迹、升降幅度和截面特征不一致,使得26个城市综合发展指数呈现出发展平稳型、持续波动型和跳跃型3种波动类型;长三角城市群的耦合度和城市间的耦合协调度呈现逐年上升的发展态势,不同年份的耦合协调度类型各异,城市间内部协调性不高,人口与其他子系统的矛盾突出,虽然两两子系统间的耦合协调度在逐年升高,但人口与其他子系统的耦合协调度偏低,当前,经济发展和环境保护矛盾依然突出。据此认为应推动长三角城市群人口、产业、资源、环境协调发展,实现以人为本的新型城镇化建设目标。

In order to evaluate the coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta City Group,the panel data of 26 cities from2002 to 2015 is selected and the index system is built to calculate the comprehensive development index and coupling coordination degree through entropy method and coupled coordination model.The results show that the comprehensive development level of this area is increasing year by year,and the development levels of these cities are obviously different.What ＇s more,the largest growth is the resource subsystem and the environment subsystem is the second one while the population subsystem is at the smallest growth.Three types that including a stable type,a continuous fluctuation type and a jumping type of the development level of 26 cities come into being due to the differences in tracks in which indexes change,fluctuation and section features of subsystems.The coupling degrees of the Yangtze Delta City Group and the cities also show a trend of increasing year by year,but different types of coupling coordination present in different years.The inter-city coordination as well as the coordination between population subsystem and other subsystems is relatively low,which means that there exists a serious problem between population subsystem and other subsystems.At present,there is still a prominent problem between economic development and environmental protection.Based on these,the relevant suggestions are put forward to promote the coordinated development of the population,industry,resources and environment of this area and realize the goal of building a new type of urbanization which emphasizes people oriented.