基于多模型的青海省经济增长与环境质量耦合研究

Research on the Coupling of Economic Growth and Environmental Quality Based on Models in Qinghai Province

首先,运用TOPSIS综合评价法计算出2011—2014年青海省环境污染综合指数。其次,以标准化后的人均GDP作为自变量,以环境污染指数作为因变量,建立EKC经验方程并进行回归分析,发现EKC经验模型忽略了经济增长和环境质量间的双向影响机制,从而导致了内生变量偏差问题。然后,利用向量自回归VAR模型对青海省经济增长与环境污染之间的相互关系进行分析研究,结果表明,青海省经济增长对环境污染的影响程度呈上升态势。再次,运用环境—经济协调度评价模型,定量分析评价环境经济系统协调度,并与相邻省份甘肃和陕西对比,发现青海省虽然协调度最弱,但协调发展度相对较好。最后,分析提出青海省促进经济环境系统协调发展的对策建议。

In this paper, the comprehensive index of environmental pollution in Qinghai Province from 2011 to 2014 is calculated by using TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method. Then, it sets up EKC experience equation to make regression analysis with the per capita GDP as independent variable and environmental pollution index as the dependent variable. The vector autoregressive VAR model is used to analyze the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Qinghai Province. Using environmental economic coordination degree evaluation model, we analyze the coordination degree of environmental and economic system in Qinghai Province. Finally, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of economic environment system in Qinghai Province.