新常态下中国经济增长动力分析

Analysis on Driven Force of China's Economic Growth under the New Normal

经济新常态背景下,中国经济下行压力加大。随着生产要素成本上升、资源环境约束加大,粗放的经济增长模式难以持续,旧经济增长点正在逐步淡出,中国需要寻找新的增长动力源泉。经济增长核算结果表明,改革开放以来中国经济增长的动力主要来自要素投入尤其是资本投入,全要素生产率的贡献度较低。未来,应从促进生产要素配置优化、提高劳动力数量和质量、推动技术创新以及加快市场化改革等方面更好地促进中国经济增长。

In the context of the new normal,China’s economy faces serious circumstance.With the increasing cost of factor input,as well as with the constraint of resource and environment,the extensive growth mode should be abandoned.Traditional driving forces are disappearing,and we should detect new driving force for China’s future.Through growth accounting,we find that factor input,especially physical capital accumulation is the driven force of China’s growth,whereas the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth is relatively trivial.China’s future is not pessimistic as forecasted by some foreign economists,as well as not so optimistic as forecasted by some domestic economists.So,to foster China’s future growth,we should promote optimization of factor allocation,increase quantity and quality of labor supply,construct innovation-based economy,and foster marketization reform.