房地产对经济增长的短期与长期影响

The Short-run and Long-run Effect of Real Estate on Economic Growth

房地产对经济增长的短期影响与长期影响截然不同。短期内,房地产能够通过拉动房地产本身及其相关产业的投资,并且为地方政府筹集资金,较为显著地拉动经济增长。但是,长期依赖房地产拉动增长将会弱化经济增长的动力源泉:一是对制造业等生产性投资产生挤出效应,不利于生产性资本积累;二是弱化实体部门企业和青年科研人员的创新动力,不利于技术进步;三是引发房地产部门与实体部门以及同房地产相关的落后产业与新兴产业之间的资源错配,不利于效率改进;四是引发房价泡沫而且一旦泡沫破裂将对资本积累产生严重冲击。有鉴于此,中国应该让房地产回归居住属性。

Based on systematically analysis,this paper finds that the short-run and long-run effect of real estate on economic growth is quite different.In the short run,real estate can promote economic growth by real estate investment and other related investment,and also by financing for the local government.However,real estate can’t promote economic growth in the long run,because it will damage the power resources of economic growth.First,real estate will crowd out productive investment like manufacturing investment,and it is harmful for productive capital accumulation.Second,real estate will weaken the motivation of innovation of firms in real economy sector and young researchers,which will impede technological progress.Third,it will cause resource misallocation not only between real estate and real economy,but also between declining industries and new industries,which is bad for efficiency improvement.Fourth,it will trigger real estate bubble and once the bubble collapses,the capital accumulation will encounter a disaster.Taken the above analysis into account,we need to be clear that housing is for people to live in.