珠江-西江经济带城市脆弱性综合评价及时空演变研究

Research on City Vulnerability andspatial-temporal evolution of the Pearl River-West River Economic Zone

以珠江-西江经济带为研究样本,构建包括经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性和资源环境脆弱性等主要指标的城市脆弱性评价指标体系,采用因子分析法和聚类分析法,分析2010—2013年珠江-西江经济带的城市脆弱性综合发展水平及其时空演变特征,研究结果表明:(1)广州市在考察期内的城市脆弱性状况最好,其次是肇庆市,佛山市排名第三;崇左市、来宾市和百色市的城市脆弱性状况均不容乐观。(2)珠江-西江经济带的城市脆弱性总体属于中等脆弱度及以下类型,强脆弱度的城市所占比例显著下降;各个城市的脆弱性程度整体上呈现出先降低再升高的态势,城市之间的脆弱性差距呈波动式下降且趋于均衡发展。(3)珠江-西江经济带城市脆弱性的阶段性演化时序特征突出,并表现出"集群化"的空间分异格局,且区域中心城市的脆弱度相对较低,资源型城市的脆弱度较强。

Taking the Pearl River and Xijiang River Economic Belt as research sample,using factor and cluster analysis,this study builds a vulnerability evaluation index system which evaluates the main indicators such as economic,social and resource-environment vulnerability of the city,in order to analyze and evaluate vulnerability level and spatial-temporal evolution of cities in Pearl River and Xijiang River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2013 comprehensively.The results show that：（1）as for vulnerability index,during the research period,Guangzhou ranked the first,followed by Zhaoqing,Foshan ranked the third;vulnerability situation of Chongzuo,Laibin and Baise did not look good;（2）The integral city vulnerability index of Pearl River and Xijiang River Economic Belt were below average.Proportion of cities with high vulnerability degree decreased significantly.The vulnerability index of cities showed an overall decreasing and then increasing trend.The vulnerability gap between the cities showed a trend of fluctuating downward and balanced development;（3）stage evolution of city vulnerability in Pearl River and Xijiang River Economic Belt was prominent,and exerts a clustering spatial stratified heterogeneity.Also,the vulnerability degree of regional central cities was relatively low,while resource-based cities showed a relatively high vulnerability degree.