中美亚太战略竞争格局的形成、走势及管控

Formation,Tendency and Management of Sino-U.S. Strategic Competition in Asian-Pacific Region

当前,在亚太特别是东亚和西太平洋地区,中美两国形成的竞争与合作并存且以竞争一面呈上升趋势的战略两强格局日渐明朗化。在该格局形成的过程中,中美两国综合实力对比的变化以及由此带来的核心利益调整属于结构性动因;两国国内政治因素以及中美之外第三方因素的复杂影响,进一步加速该格局的形成过程,构成了非结构性动因。伴随着中国综合国力急速腾升与美国国家实力相对衰落的结构性背景,中美亚太战略竞争关系中的缓和空间将进一步压缩,而其竞争空间将在经济、安全、政治、军事等领域全面展开。推动中美竞争机制呈现良性互动而非恶性循环,美国需放弃固守的霸权思维,适度分享责任与权力;中国也需给予更多耐心与定力。

In the Asian-Pacific especially East-Asia and Western Pacific region,the U.S. and China haveformed an increasingly apparent configuration in which the two majors experiencea relationship that ascendingcompetition and cooperation coexist. In the progress of formation, a shift of comprehensive power balance andsubsequent adjustment of core national interests held by the two countries are among the structural causes. Theperception and judgment shared by the domestic political elites and common people towards the counterpart of theother side,adding with the complex influence of the third part, constitute the non-structural causes which acceleratethe formation progress of the configuration. Under the background of China’ s rising comprehensive national powerand the U.S. relatively declining national power,the remaining detente of bilateral relationship will be furtherreduced and the strategic competition will be entirely showed in the economic,security,political and militarydomains. For promoting the competitive interactions virtuously rather than viciously,the U.S. should abandon thedeep-rooted hegemonic thinking and share the responsibility and power with China, while China should be patient.