基于消费需求分析的渔业供给侧改革研究

The research on fishery supply-side reform based on the analysis of the consumption demand

为了推进我国渔业供给侧结构性改革,改善水产品市场有效供给,提高居民水产品消费需求,本文通过分析水产品消费现状,认为居民消费需求与充足供给之间存在巨大差距,总体消费水平不高。同时使用水产品价格、人均可支配收入和老年抚养比的相关数据建立我国城镇居民水产品消费影响因素双对数模型,采用逐步回归法得出收入、价格和老龄化是影响我国城镇居民水产品消费的主要因素,消费量与收入因素呈正相关,与价格因素和老龄化因素呈负相关。据此给出提高水产品深加工比例、发展规模化高效水产养殖和调整不同消费终端的水产品供给结构等的政策建议。

In order to promote the structural reform of fishery supply-side in China, improve the effective supply of aquatic products market and improve the resident consumption demand for aquatic products, this paper analyzes the current situation of aquatic consumption, and concludes that there is a huge gap between resident consumption demand and adequate supply, and the overall consumption level is not high. At the same time, this paper uses the relevant data of aquatic product price, urban per capita disposable income and elderly dependency ratio to establish a double logarithm model of influencing factors of aquatic product consumption in China. It is concluded that income, price and aging are the main factors affecting the consumption of aquatic products in China, and the consumption is positively correlated with the income factor, which is negatively correlated with the factors of price and aging. Accordingly, this paper suggests that improving the proportion of deep processing of aquatic products, developing the large-scale and efficient aquaculture and adjusting the aquatic supply structure of different consumption terminals should be considered.