基于灰色马尔科夫模型的福建辖区船舶交通事故预测

Vessel Traffic Accident Prediction of Fujian Area Based on Grey Markov Model

为保障福建辖区海上交通安全,减少船舶交通事故的发生,促进辖区港航经济发展,对2000—2015年福建辖区内的船舶交通事故进行统计分析,总结辖区内事故发生的特点及规律。运用灰色马尔科夫预测模型对福建辖区内的船舶交通事故进行预测,为福建辖区建立船舶交通预警机制提供一种理论依据。

In order to reduce the occurrence of vessel traffic accidents,enhance the safety of maritime traffic in Fujian area,and support the development of the port,the statistical analysis of the vessel traffic accidents in Fujian area from 2000 to2015 is performed. The characteristic and the rule of the accidents in Fujian area are summerized. The risk of vessel traffic accidents in the area is estimated with gray Markov forecast model.