基于多元回归对电力系统负荷影响因素的计量分析

Based on the multiple regression analysis for the measurement of the power system load factors

针对气象因素(温度、湿度、降雨量等)对电力系统的影响,收集某一地区2012年1月1日至2014年12月31日的数据,进行数据的描述性统计分析,然后建立多元回归分析模型,分别对日最高负荷、日最低负荷、日平均负荷与各气象因素的关系进行回归分析,分析回归误差,研究得出结论:最高温度、平均温度和相对湿度3个气象因素可以提高电力负荷预测的精度、优化电力系统^([1])。

According to the influence o f meteorological factors （such as temperature, humidity, ra in fa ll, etc.） on the power system,the data o f January 1,2012 to December 31,2014 were collected and analyzed. Descriptive statistical analysis was then carried out. The regression model was used to analyze the relationship between daily maximum load, daily minimum load,daily average load and the meteorological factors. The regression error was analyzed and the conclusion was drawn that the three meteorological factors,such as maximum temperature,average temperature and relative humidity,Improve the accuracy of power load forecasting,optimize the power system.