政府投资效果评价研究--对国家预算内固定资产投资的宏观效应分析

Government Investment Effect Evaluation Study: Marco Effect of Fixed-asset Investment within State Budget

政府投资对国民经济的影响是多方面的,既会从供给侧影响国民经济的运行,也会从需求侧影响国民经济的运行;既有直接作用于经济运行的效果,也有间接作用于经济运行的效果。本文采用国家预算内固定资产投资口径实证分析了政府投资的宏观效应,具体测算了政府投资对经济增长、消费、民间投资、城镇化发展的拉动作用。测算分析得出的结论和建议主要有:(1)政府投资对经济增长、消费、城镇化起到一定的积极作用。(2)政府要为民间投资更好发挥作用提供必要的政策支持。(3)从长期看政府投资与民间投资是互补的关系,保持适当的政府投资规模有利于体现积极财政政策效应。(4)政府投资规模既定下要不断优化投资结构。

Government investment will affect general economy on quitea few aspects. The investment will affectthe general economy operation from the supply-side as well as the demand-side. Also it will directly and indi-rectly affect the economic operation. This study is an empirical analysis of the macro-effect of government in-vestment based on fixed asset investment within stated budget, the study assesses the pulling effect on economicincrease, consumption, private investment, urbanization from government investment. The conclusion and sug-gestions of the study mainly includes： （1） there is some positive effect on economic increase, consumption andurbanization from government investment. （2） the government should provide necessary policy support for pri-vate investment to play a better role. （3） in the long-term, government and private investment complement eachother and keeping government investment at reasonable size will result in a positive finance policy effect. （4）with defined government investment size, its structure should be improved.