基于Logistic模型对心血管疾病风险的预测

Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk based on Logistic model

针对国家统计局已公布的循环系统疾病相关数据和中国健康与营养调查数据,分析我国人群近年来心血管疾病(CVD)患病情况的变化总趋势,将年龄、体重指数(BMI)、吸烟情况、饮酒情况、血压、血糖以及血脂状况7个因素纳入二项Logistic回归模型,选取影响显著的因素建立回归方程,并根据模型得到各因素对发病情况的影响程度。利用该模型的回归结果可以预测我国男性、女性心血管疾病的发病风险,为广大群众进行自我诊断、尽早防治心血管疾病提供一定帮助。

According to the data of circulatory system diseases published by the National Bureau of Statistics and the data of China＇s health and nutrition survey,we analyzed the general trend of the change of cardiovascular disease in recent years. The age,body mass index （ BMI）,smoking status and drinking status, blood pressure, blood glucose and blood lipid status were included in the binomial logistic regression model. The influencing factors were selected to establish the regression equation. According to the model,the influence degree of each factor on the incidence was obtained. Using the regression results of this model,we can predict the risk of cardiovascular disease in male and female,and provide some help for people to self-diagnosis,early prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease as soon as possible.