乌兰察布市经济发展与公路交通运输关系的定量分析

The Quantitative Analysis of the Relations between the Economic Development and Road Transportation in Wulanchabu City

本文运用相关分析法、灰色关联分析和运输弹性系数,对乌兰察布市经济发展与公路交通运输的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:2000~2015年,乌兰察布市GDP与公路通车里程、客运周转量、货运周转量之间相关系数均达到了0.7以上,相关性较为显著。经济发展系统指标与公路交通运输系统指标的平均关联度均在0.65以上,说明近年来乌兰察布市经济发展在很大程度上促进了公路交通运输的发展。乌兰察布市公路客运、货运运输经济弹性系数在多数年份均小于1,说明乌兰察布市公路客运、货运在一定程度上制约着经济发展。

this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the economic development and roadtransportation in Wulanchabu by using the correlation analysis and the grey correlation analysis of the transport elasticitycoefficient. The results show that from 2000 to 2015, the correlation coefficients between the GDP of Wulanchabu, itshighway mileage, its passenger turnover, and its freight turnover are all more than 0.7, thus showing a significant correlationin Wulanchabu. The average correlation between its economic development indexes and its highway transportation systemindexes has reached more than 0.65, which shows that economic development had greatly promoted the development ofhighway transportation in the recent years in Wulanchabu. The economic elasticity coefficients of highway passenger andfreight transportation are less than 1.0 in most of the recent years, showing that the economic development is restricted to acertain extent by the passenger transportation and freight transportation inWulanchabu.