厌氧反应器人因失误风险计算

Calculation method of human factors risk in anaerobic reactors

为了准确辨识和预防人因误操作导致沼气泄漏,提出了厌氧反应器人因失误风险计算方法,包括概率计算、后果严重度计算和风险等级判定3部分。首先,基于对人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)的细化,构建了厌氧反应器人因失误风险评估安全检查表,归类总结出4大类11小类140条安全检查信息,并将其纳入通用人因失误安全检查表中;通过层次分析法确定安全检查表各项权重值,筛去重要度低的条目;依据精简后得到的人因失误原因构建事故树,获得人因失误导致泄漏事故出现的概率值;然后通过模拟实验回归拟合出泄漏事故后果定量计算预测模型,计算得到后果值;依据后果严重度指标分级和事故出现概率分级建立人因失误风险矩阵,最后依据概率值和后果值分析确定厌氧反应器人因失误的风险等级,重点预防高风险人因失误因素。

In order to accurately identify and prevent wrong operations,this article presents a method for calculatiing human factors risk in anaerobic reactor use; the method consists of a probability calculation,a consequences severity calculation and a risk rating determination. Starting from a human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） model,we enriched the classifications of the model and established a human error safety check list model of an anaerobic reactor cluster for use in risk assessment. The safety check list contains 140 items of information which are summarized and classified into four general categories and 11 detailed categories and all included in the HFACS model. The weights for different safety check list elements have been determined by an analytic hierarchy process. By filtering out less important items,a streamlined model was obtained. Based on that the latter model,a fault tree can be constructed leading to the probability value of leakage accidents caused by human error. Subsequently,by focusing on simulations,a quantitative predictive model of incident consequence severity can be obtained by regression and the consequence severity value can be calculated. Finally,a risk matrix of human errors was set up. By using the probability value and the consequence severity value obtained as above,human error risk assessment for the anaerobic reactor can be analyzed. It is recommended that there should be a focus on preventing high risk human error. When an abnormal condition appears,putting forward a solution based on risk assessment can prevent major accidents.