摘要
为分析中国原木进口市场的多元化现状及趋势,根据中国原木的进口特点,构建了改进的引力模型和灰色预测模型。在此基础上对2000~2015年中国与22个主要原木进口来源国的原木进口数据进行多元回归分析、进口潜力分析,进行2016~2019年中国从22个主要原木进口来源国的原木进口额预测分析。分析结果表明:2016~2019年间中国原木进口市场将朝着多元化趋势发展,但依旧高度集中于美国、新西兰、俄罗斯以及巴布亚新几内亚4国。为减少中国原木进口风险,保证中国木质林产品的可持续出口,基于分析结果,提出为促进中国原木进口市场多元化的可行建议。
In order to analyze the present situation and trend of diversification of Chinese log import market, an improved gravitational model and gray prediction model were constructed according to the import characteristics of Chinese logs. On this basis, this paper made logistic regression analysis and import potential analysisof import data of China and 22 major log import countries from 2000 to 2015, and the import forecast analysis of imported logs from 22 major log import countries during 2016-2019. The result showed that China＇s log import market would develop in the trend of diversification from 2016 to 2019, but it still highly concentrated in the United States, New Zealand, Russia and Papua New Guinea. In order to reduce the risk of Chinese log imports and ensure the sustainable export of Chinese woody forest products, based on the analysis result, the paper put forward feasible suggestions to promote the diversification of Chinese log import market.
出处
《林业经济》
北大核心
2017年第11期45-50,56,共7页
Forestry Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金"森林碳汇资产资本化运营机理与机制设计研究"(编号:17YJC790130)
黑龙江省自然科学基金"黑龙江省林业碳汇交易市场构建与运行机制研究"(编号:QC2015090)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目一般项目"黑龙江省森林碳汇市场机制与发展路径研究"(编号:16GLB04)
关键词
原木
进口潜力
改进的引力模型
灰色预测模型
log
import potential
improved gravitation model
gray prediction model
