基于实物期权法的林木资产价值评估——以江西吉安东固采育林场为例

Value Evaluation of the Forest Assets Based on Real Option Method——Taking Ji'an Donggu Forestry Farm in Jiangxi Province as an Example

合理评估林木资产的价值对于林权流转业务的健康发展具有重要意义。传统资产评估方法忽略了林木资产所包含的选择权,而实物期权法能够反映不确定性带来的柔性价值,在一定程度上弥补了传统评估方法的缺陷。文章在充分剖析林木资产实物期权特征的基础上,对实物期权法在林木资产价值评估领域应用的必要性和可行性进行了分析,并对Black-Scholes期权定价模型关键参数的确定方法进行了探讨。另外,以江西吉安东固采育林场的一项林木资产评估为案例,比较了实物期权法与传统方法的实际应用。

It is highly important to make reasonable evaluation of forest assets in the development of forest property circulation. Traditional methods neglect options attached to forest assets. However, real option method reflects the flexible value that uncertainty brings, making up the defects of traditional methods to a certain extent. Based on the real option characteristics of forest assets, this paper analyzed the necessity and feasibility of application of real option method in forest evaluation field, and explored the determination of key parameters of Black - Scholes option pricing model. In addition, this paper took Ji＇an Donggu Forestry Farm in Jiangxi Province as an example, to compare the practical application of real option method and traditional methods.