丝绸之路经济带沿线国家间进出口效率研究——基于随机前沿引力模型

Trade Efficiency among Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt:Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Models

丝绸之路经济带建设是我国提出的关于跨区域经济合作的重大战略构想,贸易畅通则是其重点内容。为此,本文基于随机前沿引力模型,评估了丝绸之路经济带沿线主要国家之间的出口效率、进口效率及影响因素。结果发现:考察期内丝绸之路经济带的贸易效率总体呈下降趋势,造成实际贸易量低于贸易潜力的主要原因是人为贸易阻力;独联体国家及交通枢纽国家的出口效率表现较好,而发达国家的进口效率普遍较高;我国出口和进口效率分别位居第八位和第十位,说明我国出口仍具有相当潜力,但开放程度有待进一步提高;为扭转贸易效率下滑的趋势,丝绸之路经济带建设应加快推进自贸区谈判和降低关税、提高互联互通和物流水平、加强货币合作和金融风险防范。

Silk Road Economic Belt is an important strategy to promote inter-regional economiccooperation with countries along the lines, and trade is the foundation of this strategy. Based on thestochastic frontier gravity model, this paper estimates trade potential and determinants of Silk RoadEconomic Belt using the data covering 20 countries during 2005-2013. The results indicate that tradeefficiency of Silk Road Economic Belt showsa decreasing trend, and the main reason why actual tradevolume is below trade potential lies in trade resistances. CIS countries as well as countries in transportationjunctions have relatively high export efficiency, while the developed countries have generally high importefficiency. The export and import efficiency of China are respectively ranked 8th and 10th, which suggeststhat China still hasa great potential for export growth. In order to improve trade efficiency of Silk RoadEconomic Belt, we should accelerate regional economic integration, reduce tariff, enhance transport andlogistics connectivity, and strengthen cooperation on the prevention of financial risks.