日本南海战略中的智库作用:参与背景、路径与局限性

Think-tank in Japan's Intervention Strategy to the South China Sea:Participation Background,Route and Limitation

近年来,日本对南海问题的介入日趋深化,出台的南海介入政策日益密集,客观上对政府政策制定能力、效率的要求在不断提高。另一方面,日本海洋政策决策机制剧烈变革后,取代各大省厅成为决策核心的首相官邸缺乏足够的政策制定能力与经验,在应对南海问题等海洋事务上力不从心。在以上两大背景下,日本智库迎来了发挥自身作用的良机。各大智库通过提交研究报告与政策建言,多渠道加强与政府联系,与声索国开展公共外交等路径影响着日本的南海介入战略,呼应了政府的政策趋向。应该看到,尽管日本智库在南海问题上较为活跃,但由于面临着财政基础薄弱、缺乏独立政策立场、人才储备匮乏等多重现实问题,目前其影响力尚存在限度。智库作为影响日本南海政策的重要外部变量,其在南海事务中的作用与未来走向值得我国进行长期而系统的研究。

In recent years, with the increasing deepening of the intervention to the South China Sea, Japan formulated more intensive South China Sea intervention strategy, which has put forward higher demands objectively to government’s policy-making ability and efficiency. On the other side, after the dramatic change of Japan’s ocean policy decision-making mechanism, The prime minister’s official residence, who replaced major ministries and agencies to became the core of decision-making system, is regarded as lacking of adequate policy-making ability and experience, powerless to deal with ocean-related issues including the South China Sea issue. Under the above two backgrounds, think-tanks of Japan ushered opportunities to exert their influence. The major think-tanks influence Japan’s invention strategy by submitting research reports and policy recommendations, strengthen connections with government through multiple channels, carrying out public diplomacy with claimants, and echoing the policy tendency of Japanese government. Which should be pointed out is that although Japanese think-tanks are relatively active toward the South China Sea issue, due to multiple realities such as weak financial foundation, lack of independent policy stance and talent reserve, the influence of these think-tanks are still limited. However, as an important external variables to Japan’s south China sea policy,the impact and further trend of think-thanks is worthy of our long-term and systematic research.