山东省县域经济空间格局演变及驱动机制研究

A Study on Spatial Pattern Evolution and Driving Mechanism of County-level Economy in Shandong Province

文章以山东省103个县域单元为研究对象,选取多项指标,利用标准差椭圆、空间变差函数、探索性空间数据分析及动态面板数据模型分析2005-2015年山东省县域单元经济空间格局演化特征和地域分异驱动机制。结果表明:山东省县域经济总体格局呈东北—西南走向,重心向东迁移且速度加快,主方向呈先扩张后收缩态势;县域经济空间差异、空间自组织性及结构性分异有所增强,东北—西南向分异显著,内在结构形态异质性未随经济发展而减弱;全局空间关联性表明经济空间集聚程度增强,呈显著核心—外围二元结构,局部空间关联性表明县域经济增长极与低洼区两极分化严重,经济发达区密布于东部沿海,鲁西南与鲁西北等经济低洼区连片分布,空间扩散和梯度转移是其主要原因;分权化、工业化水平、市场化和对外开放程度是影响山东省县域经济格局变迁的重要动力机制。

Based on the standard deviation ellipse(SDE), spatial variogram, the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and dynamic pan-el data model, this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of economic spatial pattern and the driving mechanism of region differentia-tion of the 103 county-level units in Shandong province from 2005 to 2015. The results show that: The overall pattern of county-leveleconomy in Shandong province is northeast-southwest direction. The gravity of county-level economy center shifts to the east, and thespeed is accelerating. The main direction presents the trend of expansion first and contraction subsequent; The spatial differences, spatialself-organization and structural differentiation of county-level economy have been enhanced, and the northeast-southwest direction hasan obvious divergence. The heterogeneity of internal structure is not weakened with the economic development; The global spatial correla-tion indicates that the degree of spatial economic agglomeration is generally enhanced, which is a significant core-peripheral binary struc-ture. The local spatial correlation shows that county-level economic growth pole and low-lying areas are polarized seriously. The economi-cally developed areas are densely distributed in the eastern coastal areas, and the economic low-lying areas of the southwest and the north-west in Shandong province are contiguous. The spatial diffusion and the gradient transfer are the main reasons; Decentralization, industrial-ization level, marketization and the degree of opening to the outside world are an important dynamic mechanism, which affects the changeof county-level economy pattern in Shandong province.