欧洲大国发展道路的经验解释

An Empirical Explanation of the Economic Development Road of the Large Countries in Europe

大国的人口规模优势会转化为国家竞争优势,但是无论大国还是小国,都可以通过国际贸易增强国家经济实力。欧洲作为一个整体在15世纪前后突然超过亚洲大国,在一定程度上是由于它们共同采用了贸易开放政策。同时,工业革命没有发生在最先富裕的葡萄牙、西班牙和荷兰,而是发生在欧洲人口规模相对较大的英国和后来的法国和德国,主要是因为这些国家除拥有较大的人口规模之外,还较好地将殖民地纳入本国的分工体系,而且拥有更好的市场条件、高效的法制传统和人力资本培育体系,使本国的要素结构更能支持大规模的民间技术创新,吸纳过剩资本和农业剩余劳动力,促使其经济结构从传统农业向近代工业转型。

The population scale advantage of large countries can be transformed into the competitive advantage of these countries,but whether large or small,their national economic power can be enhanced through international trade.Europe as a whole in the fifteenth century suddenly caught up with and eventurely surpassed large countries in Asia.To a certain extent,this is due to their commonly-adopted open trade policy.But the industrial revolution did not happen in Portugal,Spain or the Netherlands which prospered first,but in those countries which have relatively larger population size,such as Britain,France and Germany.Apart from their relatively larger population size,these countries can bring the colonies into their own division system,and they have efficient legal system,cultivation system of hu man capital and better market conditions which are the most important.Thus,their elements structure can massively support the private technological innovation and absorb excess capital and surplus labor in agriculture,and so their economic structure can transform from agriculture to the modern industries.