抚顺短时强降水天气预报方法研究

Study on Forescasting Method of Short-time Heavy Precipitation Weather in Fushun

利用1981—2013年抚顺3个国家基本站逐时降水资料分析抚顺地区短时强降水的时空分布规律,发现章党短时强降水出现次数最多,为71次,且从年际变化来看,章党呈波动式变化,清原从2001年开始明显增加,新宾年际变化大,2010年达到最大11次,之后迅速减小。从后半夜到早晨,午后到傍晚这2个时段是强降水的易发时间段。根据500hPa环流形势特征,抚顺地区短时强降水天气可分为4种短期天气学模型:东北低压型,占39.7%;脊前切变线型,占25.9%;副热带高压型,占25.9%;偏西气流型3.4%;其他占8.6%。

The spatial and temporal distribution of short-time Heavy precipitation weather in Fushun was analyzed by using the hourly precipitation data of Fushun 3 national basical stations in1981—2013.It was Found out that chapter party short-time strong rainfall in most times,with 71 times.Zhangdang changed in a fluctuant way,and qingyuan increased significantly since 2001 from the point of interannual variability,and Xinbin interannual change was big,with maximum 11 in 2010.After the decrease rapidly,the two periods from the late middle of the night to the morning and between afternoon and evening were periods of heavy precipitation.According to the characteristics of the 500 h Pa circulation station,the short-term strong precipitation weather in Fushun could be devidided into four types of short-term weather models:Northeast low pressure type,accounting for 39.7%; the front shear line of the ridge,which accounting for 25.9%;subtrobical high press tipy,which accounting for 25.9%; partial westerly flow rate type,which accounting for 25.9%;and other 8.6%.