中国猪周期的影响因素及其对策

Influencing Factors of Pig Cycle in China And Its Countermeasures

分析了中国最近2次猪周期(2008年3月—2017年3月),9年中有2个的生猪价格高低期,最近的猪周期有5年,近2年保本,1年半亏损,1年半盈利,盈利期是中国历史上最长期。并借鉴美国的生猪期货市场,提出完善生猪生产产业链、生猪保险政策、农业灾害补偿政策等控制中国猪周期波动对策。

This paper analyzed the last two pig cycles in China from March 2008 to March 2017.In those 9 years,there were two hog prices high-low cycle.The most recent pig cycle is 5 years,of which nearly two years guaranteed,one and a half years losses,one and a half years profit.The profit period was the longest in Chinese history.Then it referred to the hog futures market in the United States,and put forward the measures to control the fluctuation of Chinese pig cycle,such as improving pig production industry chain,pig insurance policy,agricultural disaster compensation policy,etc..