中国城市人口压力系数测度及其影响因素

The Measurement of Coefficient of Urban Population Pressure and Its Influence Factor Analysis in China

在评述已有关于人口压力研究的基础上,提出基于适度人口与实际人口比较的城市人口压力系数概念,从技术层面构建基于社会净收益动态最优的短板模型来测度城市适度人口。在此基础上,以2010年和2013年我国286个地级及以上城市为例进行实证测度和分析。研究表明:我国城市人口压力可以分为适度偏低、相对适度和超越适度三种类型,大约呈现21.18%、66.32%和12.50%的分布,东、中部和西部存在一定差异;对降低我国城市人口压力存在显著影响的因素包括:城市经济发展能力、城市基础设施和基本公共服务供给、城市居民就业和职工工资水平、大学教育对经济的带动、城市资源的节约意识等。据此,提出相关对策建议。

This paper reviews literature on the research of population pressure. Then we put forward the concept of urban population pressure coefficient based on the comparison between the optimal population and actual population. Technologically, we create a short-board model under the dynamic optimal theory of social net benefit to calculate the urban optimal population. Accordingly, based on the data of 286 prefecture-level and above cities in 2010 and 2013, we conducted the empirical study. Empirical analysis shows the following findings. Firstly, in different cities, the population pressure captures different levels, such as unreached optimum, relative optimum and over optimum, which includes 21.18%, 66. 32% and 12.50% cities respectively, in the meantime, there are some gaps between different regions of east, west and middle. Secondly, we find some factors have significant impact on reducing the pressure on urban population in China, such as the ability of economic development, the public provision and infrastructure, the resident employment and the income level, the promotion of university education to economy, the consciousness of saving resource, etc. Finally, this paper puts forward some corresponding suggestions.