京津冀流动人口的空间集聚及其影响因素

Analysis on the Spatial Agglomeration and Its Influence Factors of the Floating Population in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

利用全国第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查数据,对流动人口空间分布特征和形成机制进行了分析,并采用京津冀流动人口县级截面数据和定量模型,对影响京津冀流动人口空间格局形成的因素进行了实证分析。研究发现,京津冀地域单元流动人口具有显著的空间集聚性;各地区流动人口增长的内部差异明显;无论京津冀区域外还是区域内部的人口流动,均向北京市和天津市集聚;近几年京津冀流动人口增速虽然减缓,但向京津集聚的趋势未变。研究结果表明,在京津冀流动人口空间分布的影响因素中,经济因素中的第三产业占GDP比重的影响最大,社会因素的影响次之,流动人口密度滞后效应再次,平均海拔影响因素最小。基于此,提出制定倾向河北省的京津冀一体化政策,包括注重发展河北省第三产业,增加河北省对流动人口的吸引力。

Based on the Fifth and the Sixth National Population Census data, this paper analyses the spatial distribution characteristic and formation mechanism of floating population. It establishes a county dimension database and quantitative model of the floating population in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei. It conducted empirical analysis on the factors which influenced the formation of floating population＇ s spatial structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The study found that the floating population is spatial clustering, while the internal differentiation of floating population growth is obvious. The floating population either outside or inside Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region all are concentrated in Beijing and Tianjin. Although the growth rate of the floating population in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has slowed down in recent year, the trend is not changed. The empirical analysis shows that the economic factors imposed the greatest impact on the spatial distribution of the floating population in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The marginal effect of the third industry＇ s proportion of the GDP is the largest among the explanatory variable in the regression model. The social factors＇ effect on the distribution of floating population in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is subsidiary. The density lag effect of floating population is the third influence and the natural factors＇ influence is the least, the average elevation is the factor which affected least among the variables affect the floating population distribution significantly. Therefore, we should propose tendency of Hebei province in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration policy. We should pay attention to the development of the third industry in Hebei Province, to increase the attraction of the floating population.