中国高等教育年龄人口总量、结构及变动趋势

The Size,Structure and Developing Trend of the Chinese College-age Population

以1982年以来的人口普查数据为基础,以年龄别受教育模式、平均受教育年限和预期受教育年限为主要测量方法,分析中国高等教育人口总量、结构和存在的主要问题。通过递进人口预测模型,预测中国高等教育年龄人口总量、结构和变动趋势。研究认为中国高等教育年龄人口总量进入下降阶段。各年龄队列之间人口规模从差距巨大,向差距显著缩小转变。预计今后高等教育年龄人口规模将持续稳定下降,人口规模从2015年的12849.16万人下降到2035年的9114.74万人,比2015年减少3700多万人,下降幅度接近1/3。未来的高等教育年龄人口在校规模具有很强的不确定性。预计2020年之前高等教育年龄人口在校规模处于下降趋势,2015年至2020年保持在3000万—4000万之间。

This paper based on the population census data from 1982 and used the indicators of the mean education years and mean expectation years of education to observe the changes of college-age groups. Using the parity progression model, this paper has made a projection for the size, structure changes and developing trend of the college-age population under the two children policy. The result show that the size of the college-age population will keep continue declining in the next 15 years. The cohort population size has change from big difference between cohorts to close from cohort to cohort. The total population will decline from 128.49 million in 2015 to 91.14 million. It will decline one-third in 20 years. The student population will be in the range of 30-40 million before 2020.