中国各地区人口流动推-拉力因素的动态观察

Dynamic Observation on Thrust-Pull Factors of Population Mobility in Various Regions of China

文章通过对我国人口流动的推-拉系数和人口净迁入率之间关系的动态对比研究发现:随着各地区社会经济的发展,不同地区对人口的吸引力发生着消长变化,原来推-拉系数是负值的地区现在有些变为正值了,原来推-拉系数是正值的地区现在依然是正值,但是系数的绝对值减小了;各地区推-拉系数值与人口净流入率之间一致性的关系并没有改变;虽然东部地区仍然是我国社会经济发展水平最高、拉力最大的地区,仍然是流动人口迁入率最高的地区,但是东部地区整体的拉力在减小,与此同时中西部地区的拉力在增大(推力在缩小);推-拉理论在分析我国人口、劳动力的迁移、流动等有关问题时依然有效。

Through the dynamic-contrast research on the relationship between the thrust-pull coefficient of our country＇ s population mobility and the net migration rate of population, the paper finds that every region＇ s attraction for the population fluctu- ates along with the development of their social economy; some of the regions with negative thrust-pull coefficient in the past have got a positive one today, and those with positive thrust-pull coefficient at that time still positive now, but the absolute value of the coefficient is reduced; the consistency relationship between the positive-negative of the thrust-pull coefficient of the regions and net migration rate of population is not changed, although the eastern areas have the highest development level of social economy with biggest pull effect and the highest migrant rate of population, their overall pull effect is decreasing, and meanwhile the pull of middle-western areas is growing （ thrust is descending）; and the thrust-pull theory is still effective in analyzing the related prob- lems of the migration, mobility of population and labor forces.