中国对非直接投资时空演化及其影响因素

Spatio-Temporal Evolution of China's OFDI in Africa Countries and Its Influencing Factors

从微观企业的层面,利用2003—2014年中国对外直接投资的数据建构面板,通过Tobit模型并结合实际案例,充分考虑了中国对非洲OFDI在行业结构、企业所有制、东道国空间分布上呈现出的复杂性和多样性,研究了中国对非直接投资的时空演化及其影响因素。结果表明,中国政府在中国企业"走出去"的过程中发挥了重要作用,但近年来非国有企业的作用越来越显著;中国对非投资聚焦的行业也逐步从地质勘查与开发等资源型行业转向了制造业、租赁和商务服务业,中国企业在非投资的子公司逐步向产业链上下游延伸。计量模型结果显示,东道国的属性及其与中国的政治、经济邻近性共同决定了中国在非洲OFDI的空间分布;作为非洲投资的后来者,中国企业尤其是非国有企业往往选择投资不足、政治相对不稳定的国家或地区,以避免与发达国家的投资者正面竞争,并获得更大的利润;2009年以后,中国企业资源导向型投资逐渐减少,转变为以市场导向型投资为主。

The growth of China＇s foreign direct investment （OFDI） has attracted the attention of the world. From the perspective of micro- enterprise analysis, through the Tobit model and practical examples, using the data of China＇s foreign direct investment （FDI） from 2003 to 2014, we explored the differences and complex and diverse characteristics of the OFDI in Africa about size, industry structure, corporate ownership, origin, host country and spatial distribution. The results show that the Chinese government has played a role in the process of ＂going out＂. But in recent years the role of non-state-owned enterprises and local state-owned enterprises has become more and more significant. The investment area that Chinese investors focus on has changed, from geological exploration and development industry to manufacturing, leasing and business services, and Chinese subsidiaries in Africa gradually extended to the upstream and downstream industry chain. The results of the model claim that the host country＇s attributes and its proximity to China＇s politics and economy determine the spatial distribution of Cbina＇s OFDI in Africa. As a latecomer to invest in Africa, Chinese enterprises, especially private enterprises, often choose underdeveloped and politically unstable countries to avoid competing with investors from developed countries and gain greater profits. Chinese enterprises are mainly market- oriented after 2007.