摘要
提出了一种考虑电动汽车充电需求特性的城市配电网负荷预测方法,实现对城市配电网中长期负荷增长规律进行预测。首先,建立城市电动汽车时空分布的充电需求率模型,再根据城市电动汽车的发展趋势,对电动汽车充电负荷的增长规律进行预测。根据城市发展规划,采用灰色预测模型对常规负荷进行预测,最后将电动汽车负荷增长规律与常规负荷增长规律结合,得到城市配电网的中长期负荷增长规律。
A mid-long term load forecasting method considering the characteristics of charging demand of EVs is proposed for an urban distribution network. Firstly,the temporal and spatial distribution model of charging demand rate is established,combining with the development trends of EVs in a city,the charging load of EVs is forecasted. According to the urban development plans,the grey-forecasting model is utilized to forecast normal load. Finally,the mid-long term urban distribution network load regularity is obtained based on the charging load forecasting result and normal load forecasting result.
出处
《华北电力技术》
CAS
2017年第11期1-5,共5页
North China Electric Power
关键词
负荷预测
电动汽车
灰色预测模型
load forecast, electric vehicle, grey-forecasting model
