面向调度考虑不可控广义需求侧响应资源的负荷预测

Load Forecasting for Dispatch Considering Uncontrollable Generalized Demand Response Resources

面向调度提出一种考虑不可控广义需求侧响应资源的负荷预测方法。首先,将不可控广义需求侧响应资源根据一定的特征分成两类:第一类是完全不可控的基于电价信息的用户自主调整用电方式的需求侧响应负荷;第二类是电能服务商可控的储能系统和分布式电源。然后,针对第一类响应资源采用基于弹性矩阵的响应模型,分析其对负荷预测精度的影响;针对第二类响应资源,以储能系统套利和分布式电源上网费用和最大为目标,以储能充放电对象和分布式电源出力对象等为约束条件,建立数学模型,制定运行策略,进而分析其对负荷预测的影响。最后,用某地区配电系统进行分析,验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。

This paper presents a load forecasting method for dispatch considering uncontrollable generalized demand response resources. Firstly,the uncontrollable generalized demand response resources are classified into two categories according to certain characteristics： the first type is completely uncontrollable power demand response load the user can adjust based on the electricity price information; the second type is the energy storage system and distributed generator that energy service providers can control. Then,for the first kind of response resources,the response model based on elastic matrix is used to analyze the effect of the model on the accuracy of load forecasting; for the second types of response to resources,the maximum sum of the energy storage system arbitrage and the distributed generator income as the objective function,energy storage charge and discharge of the object and the distribution generator output objects as constraints,a mathematical model was established,furthermore,the influence of load forecasting is analyzed. At last,distribution system in a certain area is analyzed to verify the validity and correctness of the proposed method.