技术进步偏向性与产业结构升级——基于中国省级面板数据

The Bias of Technological Progress and the Upgrading of Industrial Structure——based on the Chinese provincial panel data

基于CES生产函数构建技术进步偏向性指数,据此测算中国31个省市自治区的技术进步偏向性的大小和方向。测算结果表明,大部分地区的技术进步是偏向于资本的,只有两个时间段(2008年—2009年、2012年—2015年)呈现出一定的劳动偏向性。通过构建影响产业结构的动态面板数据回归模型并利用1997年—2015年的省级面板数据对技术进步偏向性的产业结构升级效应进行实证研究,结果显示技术进步偏向性指数的系数为正。由此可知,当技术进步偏向于资本时,有助于三次产业之间的结构调整和第三产业内部结构的优化,提升生产性服务业的产值比重。

Based on the CES production function,the paper constructs the bias index of technological progress and then calculates the size and direction of the technological progress of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China.The result shows that the technological progress in most areas is biased towards capital except during the two periods from 2008 to 2009 and from 2012 to 2015 when the index reflects a significant labor bias.After the establishment of industrial structure upgrading indicators,the paper uses the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2015 to make an empirical analysis between the technological progress bias and the industrial structure upgrading effect.The results show that the bias index of technological progress is positive.When the technological progress is biased towards capital,it will help industrial structure adjustment among the three industries and the optimization of the internal structure of the tertiary industry and increase the output value of the productive service industry.