东北三省区耕地资源与粮食生产潜力分析

Analysis of Cultivated Land Resources and Grain Production Potential in the three Three northeast Northeast provinces Provinces

东北三省区是我国最大的商品粮基地,其粮食生产能力关系到国家粮食安全。本文以1980/1996~2014年耕地面积和粮食生产系列数据为样本,应用时间序列预测方法,分析预测了东北三省区2020年耕地面积、复种指数、粮作与非粮作面积比、粮食作物结构、三大粮食作物单产和粮食总产量。预测结果表明,到2020年,东北三省区耕地面积为27841×103 hm2,粮食作物与非粮作物面积比为90.9:9.1,粮食作物播种面积为22448×103 hm2,粮食总产能力为1.41×108t,与2014年相比增产60.2%,未来东北三省区粮食总生产能力呈稳定上升之势。

The three northeast provinces are the largest commodity grain bases in China.Their food production capacity is related to the national food security. This paper collected the data of cultivated land area and grain production in 1980/1996 - 2014, and analyzed and forecasted the total cultivated area, cropping index, the ratio of food crops area to non-food crops area, crop planting structure, per unit yield and total yield ofthree grain crops in 2020 by using the method of time series forecasting in the three northeast provinces. The prediction results showed that the cultivated land area would be 27841 x 103 hm2, the ratio of non-grain crops area to grain crops area ratio would be 90.9 ： 9.1, the grain crops would be 22448 x l03 hm2, and the total grain production capacity would reach to 1.41 x 10s t by 2020 in the three northeast provinces, which increased by 60.2% compared with those in 2014. The total grain production capacity in future would show steadily rising trend in the three northeast provinces.