我国体育产业与养老产业融合态势测度与评价

Assessment and Evaluation of Converging Trend of Sports Industry and Pension Industry in China

运用文献资料调研、专家访谈和数理分析等方法,从产业融合的实践层面对我国体育产业与养老产业融合发展的态势格局进行前瞻性分析。结果显示:"体育+养老"是体育产业链与养老产业链重组形成的服务导向式创新;作为一种新经济现象,"体育+养老"市场在未来发展中也有可能形成全新独立的复合产业体系;基于灰色关联分析发现,相比体育产业与其他产业的融合度,目前我国体育产业与养老产业融合度低至0.670 7,排位末尾;建立向量自回归模型发现,我国"体育+养老"市场尚未成型,且体育养老市场培育难度很大;两大产业融合的困境源自当前我国老年体育服务的供需端掣肘,因而,政府和企业应该及时调整定位、改善供给措施,为推动两大产业融合的健康发展服务。

Through using the methods of literature review,expert interview and mathematical statistics,from the perspective of industry convergence in practice,this paper conducted the prospective analysis on converging trend of sports industry and pension industry in China. The results showed that ＂sports provided for the aged＂is the service-oriented innovation caused by the recombination of value chains between sports industry and pension industry. As a new economic phenomenon,the related market has the potential to form a brand new compound industrial system. According to the grey correlation analysis,the degree of convergence of the two industries as low as 0.6707,compared with sports industry converging with other industries. Furthermore,as the VAR model revealed that the market of ＂sports provided for the aged＂has not yet formed,and it would be very difficult to foster in the short term. In fact,the predicament of convergence of the two industries derived from the supply and demand constraints in the current elder sports service. Thus,the government and the market organizations should readjust their role and improve its supply measures,so as to promote a sound development of the converging of sports industry and pension industry in China.