货币寻锚的历史回顾与当下困局

Currency Anchor Options: Historical Review and Current Predicament

纯粹称量货币时期,货币以自身价值为锚,货币与商品是等量的价值交换,多余的货币被储藏起来,货币寻锚不是全球货币体系的主要问题。信用纸币出现以后,货币发行在钉住贵金属和适应经济增长之间出现矛盾,以政府信用为锚不得不走向前台,然而,无约束政府信用为锚引起了世界货币体系混乱,在此条件下,美国以其大量的黄金储备和强劲的经济表现,主导了布雷顿森林体系建立。不幸的是,美国黄金储备流失,布雷顿森林体系崩溃,但万幸的是,美国经济依然强劲,美元仍然是最主要的储备货币。美国以外的其他国家出于储备丧失和债务成本上升的担忧,其汇率基本选择了钉住美元,美国出于网络外部性的要求也控制了通货膨胀。但时过境迁,随着欧元区的成立和东亚经济的强势崛起,货币区域集团的趋势越来越明显,对美元的外部驻锚地位形成了挑战,并且货币供给量的长时间缓慢扩张,也导致以通货膨胀率为下锚走到了失效边缘。依此,本文在结论部分提出了货币寻锚的方向,以特别提款权(SDR)为中心重塑汇率外部驻锚,以利率为纽带再造政府信用内部驻锚。毋庸置疑,在这一过程中,中国的身影不应缺失。

In the era of metal currency,it was not a big challenge to search for a currency anchor.However,with the emergence of paper money,the unconstrained government credit had led to the distortion of the global monetary system,and it had become a major challenge to find an anchor.Against that backdrop,the US,supported by its large gold reserves and strong economic performance,led other countries to establish the Bretton Woods system.Unfortunately,the Bretton Woods system collapsed,but fortunately,the US economy remained sound,and the dollar remained a major reserve currency.Worried about their loss of reserves and rise in debt costs,many countries have chosen to peg their currencies to the dollar while the US managed to put its inflation under control to minimize externalities.With the establishment of the euro zone and the rapid economic growth of East Asia,the trend of regional monetary zone has become more and more obvious,which poses a challenge to the dollar’s role as an external anchor.In addition,the slow and continuous expansion of money supply has also fatally affected the anchoring effect of inflation.In conclusion,the article suggests that the world should re-shape an SDR-centered external anchor and make use of interest rates to establish an internal anchor based on government credit.