委内瑞拉超级通货膨胀和经济衰退探源

Venezuela's Hyperinflation and Economic Woes: Causes and Implications

委内瑞拉经济形势近年来快速恶化,在2016年陷入超级通胀和深度衰退。流行看法是委内瑞拉遭受到"荷兰病"困扰,并受到"异常贸易"的不利冲击。本文的对比分析表明,"荷兰病"理论至多可解释委内瑞拉的经济下行,但无法说明其深度衰退和超级通胀。中美两国与委内瑞拉双边贸易的对比分析也表明,导致委内瑞拉对外贸易出现不利变化的主要因素除了国际油价的下跌外还有其国内经济问题。本文认为,委内瑞拉当前经济问题的根源在于经济政策的偏差,尤其是长期以来追求财政支出扩张和外汇管制。外汇管制导致市场汇率与官方汇率的分离,并在一定条件下促使市场汇率("平行汇率")成为引导委内瑞拉人民汇率预期和通胀预期的重要指示器。当国内经济其他方面在2013年出现不利转变迹象后,市场汇率更加突出地发挥了助推通货膨胀不断升高的作用。通胀高企本身也加重了委内瑞拉的国内经济困难,给政府带来更大的财政压力。委内瑞拉正面临一个两难局面:要么进一步加强管制,要么在国际协助下全面放松,第三条"中间道路"很难行得通。

The Venezuelan economy has deteriorated rapidly since 2015 and has been trapped in hyperinflation and economic recession since last year.Analysts have generally attributed the deteriorating Venezuelan economy to the so-called"Dutch disease"and abnormal trade relations.Our analysis shows that"Dutch disease",at most,may be accountable for Venezuela’s economic downturn since 2014,when world oil prices began to fall,but it has little relevance to the country’s deep recession and hyperinflation.Study of Venezuela’s bilateral trade relations with China and the US shows that the main culprit of the its economic deterioration is its domestic economic problems.The article argues that Venezuela’s current economic problems are rooted in its economic policy making,especially the Venezuelan government’s incessant pursuit of expansionary fiscal spending and blatant foreign exchange controls.The latter has resulted in unstoppable currency devaluation expectations and domestic inflation expectation,both of which have further driven up currency devaluation and inflation surges.In turn,the rising inflation aggravates the economy and public finance in Venezuela.A hard choice facing Venezuela is either to further tighten foreign exchange controls,or deregulate the economy with aids from the international community.There could not be any"third way"that would work.