金融因素如何影响全要素生产率?

How Do Financial Factors Affect Total Factor Productivity

在现有关于全要素生产率的研究中,金融因素的影响尚未得到深入分析。本文基于中国1990-2016年各地区的动态面板数据,对金融不稳定、金融周期和金融发展等金融因素对全要素生产率的影响进行了实证分析。基本结论包括:(1)金融不稳定和TFP存在显著的负相关关系,即随着金融不稳定程度的上升,全要素生产率会出现下降;(2)金融发展和TFP之间存在显著的正U型关系,只有当金融发展水平越过临界值之后,才会对TFP增长产生促进作用;(3)当金融周期处于繁荣阶段时,金融不稳定对TFP的削弱效应得到增强,而当金融周期处于衰退阶段时,金融不稳定对TFP的削弱效应则会被弱化;(4)在金融繁荣时期,金融发展会放大金融不稳定对TFP的冲击效应,但在金融衰退时期则会吸收一部分金融不稳定对TFP的冲击,从而有助于稳定经济增长。

Based on dynamic panel data of 30 provinces in China over the period of 1990-2016,this paper investigates the impacts of financial instability,financial cycle,and financial development on total factor productivity. Four basic conclusions can be drawn from the empirical results:( 1) Financial instability has a significant negative impact on TFP,which means that higher financial instability will lead to lower TFP.( 2) There is a U-shaped relationship between financial development and TFP,suggesting that financial development is conductive to TFP growth only after the threshold value.( 3) During boom phases of financial cycle,the negative effect of financial instability on TFP will be strengthened,and the reverse is true during bust phases.( 4) Financial development will magnify the shock of financial instability on TFP in boom phases of financial cycle,while in bust phases,financial development will absorb some shocks from financial instability and thus is conductive to stabilizing the economy.