中美贸易失衡的一种新解读:基于要素贸易的视角

A New Interpretation of Sino-US Trade Balance Based on Factor Trade

中美贸易顺差一直是学术界和政府部门关注的热点问题。本文基于增加值贸易理论,利用1995-2009年世界投入产出表和社会经济账户,对中美贸易失衡进行了再测算;从要素贸易的视角,将中美增加值贸易失衡进一步分解为资本要素贸易失衡和劳动力(高技能、中等技能、低技能)要素贸易失衡。结果显示,相比于中美传统贸易顺差,1995、2009年中美增加值贸易顺差分别减少了18.4%和15.7%,同期中美制造业增加值贸易顺差分别减少了46.5%和47.9%,而中美农业贸易则由传统贸易逆差转变为增加值贸易顺差;在资本、劳动力要素贸易上,中国长期处于贸易顺差的地位,但中国在高技能劳动力要素贸易上表现为贸易逆差,且逆差规模持续扩大,高技能劳动要素贸易逆差主要来源于制造业和服务业。

Sino-US trade surplus has roused extensive attention from the academics and governments. Based on trade in value added,this paper re-computes Sino-US trade balance with 1995-2009 World Input-Output Tables and Socio Economic Accounts. From the perspective of factor trade,it decomposes value added trade balance into capital trade balance and labor( high-skilled,medium-skilled,low-skilled) trade balance. The results reveal that: compared to traditional Sino-US trade surplus,Sino-US value added trade surplus decreased by 46. 5% and 47. 9% respectively in 1995 and 2009,and during the same period,value added trade surplus in manufacturing decreased by 46. 5% and 47. 9% respectively with trade balance in agriculture changing from traditional trade deficit to value added trade surplus. With regard to capital and labor trade with US,China shows a long-term trade surplus. However,when it comes to high-skilled labor trade,China shows an increasing trade deficit which mainly comes from manufacturing and services.