相对房价差异与地区产业结构——基于我国省际面板数据的实证分析

Relative Housing Price Difference and Regional Industrial Structure: An Empirical Analysis based on Provincial Panel Data in China

面对国内大规模的区域产业转移现象,本文选取2003-2015年中国31个地区的面板数据,采用静态双向固定效应模型和动态SYS-GMM模型相结合的方法就相对房价对产业结构的影响进行实证分析。结果表明:在其他条件保持不变的情况下,相对房价与第二产业就业比率和产值比重存在倒"U"型关系,与第三产业的就业和产出呈显著地正相关关系,即当相对房价超过3.25时,房价过高的地区对第二产业的就业存在挤出效应,但对第三产业的就业和产出具有促进作用;相对工资、教育条件和交通便捷度对二、三产业的影响也有所不同,但空气质量变量显著地表明我国已经存在环境移民现象。因此,不同地区应该根据自身的产业发展现状,制定合理的住房政策和产业发展规划。

In the face of large-scale domestic regional industrial transfer phenomenon,this paper selects 2003-2015 panel data of 31 regions in China and uses the method of static two-way fixed effect model and dynamic SYS-GMM model to analyze the influence of relative housing prices on industrial structure. The results show that： in other conditions remaining unchanged,relative housing price shows an inverted＂U＂relationship with the second industry output value ratio and the proportion of employment,and show a significant positive correlation with the third industry employment and output,that is,when the relative housing price exceeds 3. 25,there is crowding out effect on the employment of the second industry in the areas with high housing price,but it has a promoting effect on the employment and output of the third industry; in addition,impact of relative wage,education conditions and the convenience degree of traffic on the second or third industry is also different,but the air quality variables significantly indicate that China has been the phenomenon of environmental migration. Therefore,different regions should formulate reasonable housing policy and industrial development plan according to their own industrial development status.